The East Bay Market Is Shifting

The fourth quarter selling season is almost here, and East Bay real estate markets from Orinda to Pleasanton are giving us some new things to watch.

Over the past 36 years, October, November, and December have represented our community’s second-largest quarter for home sales. We will see whether that seasonal pattern holds again this year.

But the market entering Q4 looks different than it did earlier this year. Inventory is increasing in some communities, interest rates are hovering around 7%, and buyers have more opportunity to evaluate their options without the same sense of urgency.

The market is becoming more selective, and the details matter more.

There Is No Single East Bay Market 

From Lamorinda to the Tri-Valley, local conditions can vary considerably.

In September, the San Ramon Valley market is recalibrating, with inventory increasing slightly and homes averaging 39–42 days on the market. Year-over-year price adjustments are giving buyers more options, while well-priced homes are still attracting significant activity. 

Across Lafayette, Moraga, and Orinda, median home prices were up approximately 16% year-over-year in September, while closed sales declined roughly 11%. That combination shows how prices can remain strong even as buyers become more selective. 

In Danville and Alamo, we are seeing strategically priced, turn-key homes sell relatively quickly. Across the Tri-Valley, conditions are more varied: homes in Dublin and Pleasanton have generally been moving faster, while some properties in San Ramon and Livermore are taking 40–70+ days to sell. 

The luxury market also continues to show strength, although individual properties still need to be evaluated on their own merits. 

What Is Changing as Q4 Begins? 

Interest rates, inflation, and global events continue to influence buyer confidence and decision-making. We're also watching the impact of AI-related companies and employees on the San Francisco housing market and whether that activity begins to move further into the East Bay.

For buyers, the changing environment can create more room to compare options and negotiate. For sellers, it reinforces an important point: a home cannot simply be placed on the market and expected to sell based on earlier market strength.

Days on Market Is One of the Numbers We're Watching 

One measure we will be watching closely this fall is Days on Market (DOM),or how long homes are taking to sell. As a general guide, 30 days or less can indicate stronger seller demand, while 60+ days may suggest buyers have more negotiating room.

These are not universal rules...a unique luxury property, for example, may take longer to sell even in a strong market. That's why we also look at list-to-sale price, price reductions, inventory, and how quickly homes are receiving offers.

Together, these indicators tell us far more than a single market headline.

Days on market vary considerably across the region. Homes in Dublin and Pleasanton have generally been selling more quickly, while some properties in San Ramon and Livermore are taking 40–70+ days to sell.

In Danville and Alamo, we are seeing strategically priced, turn-key homes sell relatively quickly.

The distinction is important: it is not simply whether homes are selling, but which homes are selling, and why. Location, condition, preparation, and pricing can all influence how quickly buyers respond.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers: More inventory and longer days on market in some communities may create additional time to compare homes and negotiate. But well-prepared properties in desirable locations can still attract strong competition.

For sellers: Preparation and positioning matter. Condition, presentation, pricing, and a marketing strategy tailored to the specific property can make a meaningful difference in how buyers respond.

And for anyone considering a move, the most important question may not be, “Is this a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?”

It may be:

“What is happening in the market where I am buying or selling, and how should that influence my decision?” 

If you are curious about what is happening in your neighborhood, we would be happy to share what we are seeing and help you understand what it may mean for your own situation.

Good decisions still begin with good information.